تقويم الفوركس هدية: ريتشارد استراتيجية التداول

ريتشارد ويكوف طريقة التداول.

شهدت وول ستريت حصتها العادلة من التجار الأسطورية والمستثمرين. وفي ضوء ذلك، وصفت طريقة ويكوف بأنها & # 8220؛ دليل واقعي للتحليل الفني & # 8221؛. لم يكتشف ريتشارد د. ويكوف فقط بتاج أسطورة طريقة ويكوف؛ حصل عليه. وكانت القيمة الحقيقية للموهبة ويكوف & # 8217؛ التاجر هو رغبته في تثقيف الآخرين والمساهمة بمنهجياته لأجيال المستقبل من البحوث فيما يتعلق نظرية السوق. التي تجاوزت الدوافع الإنسانية للربح والثروة. وستقدم هذه الورقة صورة تاريخية للنظريات والمنطق المالية لريتشارد د. ويكوف؛ لمحة عامة عن قوانين ويكوف والقواعد؛ وكيف تنطبق نظرياته على أسواق اليوم.

المقدمة.

تطورت طريقة تداول الأسهم ويكوف من بداية مبكرة في الحياة التي أصبحت تشارك تماما في عالم التداول في سوق الأسهم. في الخامسة عشرة من العمر، وكان ويكوف عداء الأسهم وول ستريت. وبحلول 25 عاما، كان قد فتح شركة وساطة الأسهم الخاصة به. ولد ويكوف، الذي ولد في عام 1873، بتجار مثل J. P. مورغان و تشارلز داو و جاي غولد و أندرو كارنيجي و جيسي ليفرمور و أجروا مقابلات في نهاية المطاف مع العديد من التجار المشهورين. كطالب من المرشدين كبيرة، علمت ويكوف عن تراكم الأسهم وتحديد توزيع المشغلين كبيرة وغيرها من الأفكار، والذي دمج في نهاية المطاف في منهجياته الخاصة. على مدى ما يقرب من 20 عاما، بارك ويكوف مجتمع وول ستريت من خلال منشوراته الثاقبة في مجلة وول ستريت.

(برودن، 2018) وصف ويكوف بأنه تاجر في وقت مبكر من القرن العشرين، وسيط، وناشر يقنن أفضل الممارسات من التجار الأسطوريين إلى قوانين ومبادئ وتقنيات الانضباط العقلي وإدارة الأموال ومنهجيات تداول الأسهم الفنية. عرف ويكوف المؤهلات العقلية للتاجر المهني باعتباره القدرة على تحديد الاتجاهات والقدرة على تحمل الخسارة. من نظرياته التبسيطية، ولكن عميقة كثيرة، ساهم ويكوف أن التاجر الناجح هو نتيجة & # 8220؛ التركيز المطلق على هذا الموضوع؛ جهد مضني؛ والتفاني المطلق من الاهتمام والوقت نحو قراءة الشريط & # 8221؛. في عام 1910، دراسات ويكوف المنشورة في قراءة الشريط. وفي عام 1924 نشر كيف يمكنني الاستثمار في الأسهم والسندات. في موطنه، أسس ويكوف المدرسة التي أصبحت معهد ويكوف سوق الأسهم في عام 1930، ونشرت كتاب، وريتشارد ويكوف طريقة التداول والاستثمار في الأسهم - دورة التدريس في سوق الأسهم والأساليب والتقنيات في عام 1931؛ الذي أصبح الكتاب المقدس المالي لمديري صناديق التحوط.

طريقة ويكوف.

على مدى فترة حياته، أنتجت ويكوف العديد من النظريات التي تميزت بمفاهيم الرجل المركب، وشراء وبيع ذروتها، والقفز عبر الخور، صعودا، والينابيع التي لا تزال قيد الاستخدام اليوم. المكونات الأساسية لطريقته تتكون من ملاحظات لحركات السعر والحجم. لحسن الحظ، تم نشر نسبة كبيرة من أعمال ويكوف و إما من خلال منشوراته الخاصة أو من خلال ناشري الكتب المشهورين ومنذ ذلك الحين تم إعادة تدويرها وصقلها. وتشمل معظم المساهمات الملحوظة من ويكوف & # 8217؛ s العديد من الفلسفات التجارية قوانين ويكوف 3 . تسعة اختبارات للشراء والبيع؛ و 5 نهج الخطوة إلى السوق.

ويكوف 3 القوانين.

تعكس طريقة ويكوف مجموعة ويكوف من الفلسفات التجارية والاستثمارية التي تدعم المبادئ الاقتصادية للعرض والطلب في سلوكيات الحركة من حيث السعر والحجم، والتي بدورها يمكن أن تستخدم في عرض الحركات المستقبلية. واعتبرت تحركات الأسعار هامة على أساس المقارنات اليومية والأسبوعية والشهرية والسنوية. وتتألف القوانين الثلاثة لطريقة ويكوف من (1) قانون العرض والطلب؛ (2) قانون الجهد مقابل النتائج؛ و (3) قانون السبب والنتيجة، ويرد موجز لها في الجدول 1:

1. قانون العرض والطلب - عندما الطلب في السوق أكبر من العرض. فإن أسعار السوق ترتفع. عندما المعروض في السوق أكبر من الطلب، فإن أسعار السوق تنخفض.

2. قانون الجهد مقابل النتائج - إن التناقضات والاختلافات بين السعر والحجم غالبا ما تكون بمثابة مؤشرات للتغيرات في اتجاه اتجاهات الأسعار.

3. قانون السبب والتأثير - تأثير يتطلب سببا. وسوف يكون التأثير نتيجة تتناسب مع السبب.

ومن المتوقع أن يتذبذب سلوك السوق وفقا لأنماط أساسية تتغير باستمرار. واستنادا إلى قانون العرض والطلب، تزيد ندرة الأسعار ويزداد العرض لتلبية الطلب. ويدعم قانون الجهد مقابل النتائج وقانون السبب والنتيجة أن التقلبات في حركة سعر السوق متناسبة، كما هو الحال في كل إجراء ينتج رد فعل متساوي أو متناسب. في تركيبة، وقانون العرض والطلب وقانون الجهد مقابل النتيجة تنتج كشف قوية من سوق الثور الحديثة.

ويكوف 9 شراء وبيع الاختبارات.

قدم ويكوف تسعة اختبارات شراء من أجل تشخيص تشكيلات عكسية وتسعة اختبارات بيع من أجل تحديد اتجاهات الثور الجديدة التي تم عرضها في الرسوم البيانية الشريطية والرسوم التوضيحية من نقطة وأرقام. وتتلخص اختبارات الشراء التسعة على النحو التالي في الجدول 2:

1 انخفاض السعر الهدف الإنجاز.

(1) إنجاز موضوعي صعودي.

2 الدعم الأولي، الاختبار الثانوي، بيع ذروة.

2 النشاط الهبوطي.

3 نشاط صعودي.

3 العرض الأولي وشراء ذروة.

يتم كسر 4 خطوة الهبوط.

4 الأسهم أضعف من السوق.

5 يتم كسر خطوة التصاعدي.

7 الأسهم أقوى من السوق.

8. ولي العهد تشكيل.

9 تقديرات الربح الصعودي المحتملة خسارة 3x إذا تم وقف الخسارة الأولية.

9 تقديرات الربح الهبوطي مخاطر 3x إذا تم وقف الطلب الأولي.

الجدول 2. تسعة اختبارات شراء الكلاسيكية وبيع الاختبارات.

اختبارات البيع والشراء تعمل على توجيه الدخول إلى التجارة؛ للتمييز عندما يختتم النطاق التجاري؛ والتمييز عندما يبدأ اتجاه صعودي أو هابط جديد.

5 خطوة نهج إلى السوق.

ويتعين على المستثمر أن يعرف ما إذا كان سيدخل السوق أم لا، وعند الدخول، ما هو الموقف الذي يجب أن يتخذه على أساس الوضع الحالي والمتوقع في السوق. ثم يستند اختيار الأسهم إلى تفسيرات للاتجاهات السائدة في السوق. يوفر نهج ويكوف 5 خطوة إلى السوق دليلا لدخول التجارة واختيار الأسهم، كما هو مبين النبيل 3:

ويكوف 5 خطوة نهج إلى السوق.

1. تحديد الموقف الحالي واتجاهات السوق المستقبلية المحتملة - النظر في توطيد السوق أو تتجه والاتجاه والتوقيت.

2. اختيار الأسهم في وئام مع الاتجاهات - في الاتجاه الصاعد، واختيار الأسهم التي هي أقوى من السوق الحالية.

3. اختيار الأسهم: مع & # 8220؛ السبب & # 8221؛ تساوي الأهداف الدنيا المذكورة أعلاه - تحديد أهداف الأسعار باستخدام النقطة والرقم استنادا إلى قانون السبب والنتيجة.

4. تحديد جاهزية المخزون للتحرك - تطبيق 9 خطوات للشراء و 9 خطوات للبيع.

5. توقيت الالتزام وفقا لمؤشر سوق الأوراق المالية - توقع عوائد السوق المحتملة مثل تغيير الطابع حركة السعر.

الجدول 3. نهج ويكوف 5 خطوة إلى السوق.

ويتناول هذا النهج المسائل المتعلقة بموقف السوق الحالي والمستقبلي واتجاهاته. ويستند اختيار الأسهم على قوة السوق واتجاه الاتجاهات. يتم تحديد الأهداف السعرية مع التوقعات التي يتم استخلاصها من الرسوم البيانية من نقطة وأرقام للتداولات قصيرة وطويلة. الأسهم & # 8217؛ يتم تحديد استعداد للتحرك من خلال تطبيق الخطوات 9 لشراء وبيع. يتم وضع وقف الخسارة ثم تتبع حتى يتم إغلاق الموقف.

وكان المنطق ويكوفيان تتألف من ذروتها، والاتجاهات، والتجمعات، والأسباب والآثار على السعر والحجم. ويبين الشكل 1 مخطط ل & # 8220؛ ويكوفيان المنطق & # 8221 ؛:

الشكل 1. مراحل وأحداث ويكوف & # 8217؛ (رتت، 2018)

كانت إستراتيجية التداول الأولية ل ويكوف هي مرحلة ترميز / هبوط الأسعار، حيث كسر السعر من نمط القاعدة ودورة السوق الأربع مراحل. وقد عرضت أسباب وأثر ويكوف & # 8217؛ s الأطوار والأحداث كانت على أساس الافتراض أن قراءة الشريط يمكن أن تدعم بشكل كبير تحديد حركات أسعار السوق في المستقبل قبل تغيير الأسعار. في نهاية المطاف، كان التركيز الأساسي للمنطق هو حركة السعر.

الصلة في أسواق اليوم.

بعد دراسة حكمة التجار الأسطوريين من يومه، أصبح ويكوف نفسه أسطورة. ويؤكد محللو السوق الحديثون أن طريقة ويكوف & # 8217 مؤكدة وذات صلة بالقرارات التجارية والاستثمارية قصيرة الأجل وطويلة الأجل (بورجيس، 2018؛ هوتسون، شرودر أند فايس، 1991). أربعة عناصر رئيسية من طريقة ويكوف التي لا تزال ذات الصلة اليوم هي أنماط الانعكاس، وتحديد الاتجاه، والمواقف الاتجاه، وتوقعات الأسعار. لا يزال يتم تحليل موقف واتجاه الاتجاهات على أساس ويكوف & # 8217؛ s مدرسة الفكر فيما يتعلق بتحليل السوق التقنية. ويكوف & # 8217؛ s يساعد المستثمرين أقل تطورا الذين هم بخلاف ذلك تمزق من قبل المشغلين كبيرة الذين استفادوا من ردود خاطئة لتحركات أسعار السوق.

وقد واصلت اختبارات الوقت الحقيقي لطريقة تداول الأسهم ويكوف مقابل مؤشر داو جونز الصناعي التحقق من صحة هذه الطريقة (برودن، 2018). إن التطبيق العملي لهذه الطريقة في أسواق اليوم، مثل تطبيقها إلى اليوم & # 8217؛ s500، SP100، راسل 2000، ني مركب و ناسداك، يكمن في أنه بمثابة دليل موثوق لتحليل اتجاه السوق . توقيت اتخاذ القرارات على أساس السوق؛ والعمل كمؤشر يعتمد عليه عندما ينبغي أن يكون التجار داخل أو خارج الأسواق. (برودن، 2018) أن طريقة ويكوف & # 8220؛ تمكن المحللين المتداولين من اتباع نهج متكامل ومتوازن في اتخاذ القرارات فيما يتعلق بالتحليلات الفنية & # 8221؛. وفيما يتعلق بأعماله الخاصة، قدم ويكوف أن & # 8220؛ هنا يكمن نتائج حياة قراءة شريط الدراسات. السعي الذي هو مربحة. ليس للضعفاء القلب أو البطيء العقل & # 8230؛ ولكن لحزم؛ الإرادة القوية والمنضبطة؛ وتركز، ومثابرة والتخلص من الهدوء & # 8221؛.

المراجع.

بورجيس، R. أوبثروستس & أمب؛ ذروتها: تحليل ويكوف & أمب؛ مؤشر الدولار. العقود الآجلة، 2018.

هوتسون، J. شرودر، C. ويس، D. 1991. رسم بياني لسوق الأسهم: طريقة ويكوف. التحليل الفني للأسهم والسلع.

برودن، H. طريقة ويكوف المطبقة في عام 2009: دراسة حالة لسوق الأوراق المالية في الولايات المتحدة. إفتا جورنال، 2018.

RTT. 2018. ريتشارد ويكوف ميثود. مكتبة المؤشر. قراءة شريط. تم الاسترجاع من ريادتيتيكر / باجيس / IndLibrary. aspx؟ 65tf = 84_richard-ويكوف-ميثود.

ويكوف، R. 1919. ذي داي ترادر & # 8217؛ s الكتاب المقدس. تيكر النشر.

أعلى تاجر ريتشارد دينيس واستراتيجية تجارة السلاحف.

تحول تاجر الأسطورية ريتشارد دينيس الرجال العاديين والنساء إلى التجار من الدرجة الأولى من خلال تعليمهم كل شيء كان يعرف عن التداول الاتجاه. تعلم قواعد نظامه أدناه. أيضا معرفة ما إذا كانت هذه الاستراتيجية لا تزال ذات الصلة اليوم.

ماذا لو انتزع شخص ما كنت خارج الشارع وجعل لكم مليونيرا؟

هذا ما فعله ريتشارد دينيس لعدد قليل من الرجال والنساء المحظوظين، من خلال تعليمهم لتجارة الأسواق.

هناك العديد من الطرق للتجارة في السوق. على سبيل المثال، مرة واحدة يمكن تداول الأسهم، والعملات (الفوركس)، أو السلع (الذهب والفضة والنفط). وكان ريتشارد دينيس تاجر العقود الآجلة. و "أمير الحفرة" جعل 80 مليون دولار في عام 1986، في طريقه إلى جمع ثروة شخصية من 200 مليون $؛ وبسبب ذلك، تم طرح اسم ريتشارد دينيس حولها مع أمثال الملياردير التحوط مدير الصندوق جورج سوروس وملوك السندات غير المرغوب فيه مايكل ميلكين.

هذه الثروات لم تكن سهلة، وكان دنيس سيئة السمعة لأنها تعاني من كميات هائلة من التقلب. وقال انه يمكن أن يكون لأسفل بقدر 10 مليون $ في يوم واحد! على عكس التجار الآخرين الذين أخذوا الصفقات على المدى القصير، عقد دينيس على مناصبه لفترة أطول أثناء ركوب تقلبات السوق.

لسوء الحظ، عقد دنيس لفترة طويلة جدا بين عامي 1987 و 1988، حيث خسر أكثر من 50٪ من الأصول التي يديرها. ريتشارد دينيس خرج إلى حد كبير بعيدا عن التداول بعد هذا، ولكن نهاية هذه المهنة هو & # 8217؛ ر الوجبات الجاهزة الرئيسية من قصته. درس حفنة من الناس كيفية التجارة بنجاح، وبعض منهم على ما يرام اليوم. كيف جعل المال لا يزال مهما، ويمكن دمجها مع بروتوكولات إدارة المخاطر الأخرى للمساعدة في السيطرة على الخسائر.

السلاحف.

في حين المعروف دينيس لصنع وفقدان الكثير من المال، وقال انه يعرف أيضا عن شيء آخر & # 8211؛ تجربة. أخذ حفنة من الرجال والنساء من الغموض، وعلمهم لتداول العقود الآجلة. ووفقا لطالب سابق، ذهب هؤلاء ما يسمى تجار السلاحف لكسب أرباح 175 مليون $ في 4 سنوات، أو 80٪ معدل العائد المركب.

من خلال قبوله الخاص في الكتاب التجاري الشهير ويزاردز السوق، كل هؤلاء الناس تم فحصها بدقة قبل. وبعبارة أخرى، اعتبروا أن لديهم القدرة على اتباع نظام التداول الذي سيعرض عليهم. فمن شيء واحد أن نعرف استراتيجية، بل هو شيء مختلف تماما لتكون قادرة على تنفيذها بنجاح.

الشيء الأكثر جنونا: كل ذلك نابع من رهان بين دينيس وشريكه ويليام إكهاردت. ويعتقد ويليام أن التجار الناجحين لديهم الهدايا والمواهب الفطرية في حين يعتقد ريتشارد دينيس التجار جيدة قدمت، لم يولد.

لتسوية الرهان، وضعت دينيس تجربة.

وضع دينيس إعلانات في صحيفة وول ستريت جورنال وصحيفة نيويورك تايمز. حصل على أكثر من 1000 من المتقدمين، الذي اختاره 10. فقط عدد قليل من الناس كان يعرف بالفعل تمت إضافتها إلى مجموعة من 10، ليصل المجموع النهائي إلى 13. بعد فترة تدريب قصيرة، أعطيت السلاحف حسابات التداول الممولة مع دينيس & # 8217؛ s المال الخاص (في المتوسط حوالي 500،000 $ إلى 2،000،000 $ للتاجر، ولكن هذا يختلف جذريا اعتمادا على الطالب). ودعاهم السلاحف بسبب تجربة كان لديه في سنغافورة، حيث رأى مزارع السلاحف بكفاءة رفع وتزايد السلاحف. قرر أنه سيكون قادرا على رفع طلابه بنفس الكفاءة.

نظام السلاحف التجارية.

يعتمد التجار الناجحون على استخدام الأنظمة، أو خطة التداول للنجاح. من خلال أتمتة عملية التداول، يمكن للتجار الناجحين إزالة عنصر عدم موثوقية الإنسان. الكمبيوتر يفعل ما هو مبرمج للقيام به. إن الإنسان قد يقف أمام احتمال التمسك بتجارة تخسر ملايين الدولارات، حتى لو كان ذلك هو الشيء الصحيح الذي ينبغي عمله، استنادا إلى نظام يميل إلى الفوز على المدى الطويل.

وقد تم تدريس السلاحف كيفية تنفيذ استراتيجية تتبع الاتجاه. انها نوع من استراتيجية التداول حيث كنت محاولة لركوب زخم الأصول، سواء كان يتجه صعودا أو هبوطا. الاتجاه-أتباع هي مثل متصفحي العالم التجاري، والانتظار في البحر لمجرد موجة الصحيحة لركوب. لديك فقط للتأكد من ان تحصل قبالة موجة قبل أن تعطل لك على الصخور.

وكان نظام تجارة السلاحف نظاما قائما على القواعد. اتبع القواعد، وسوف تنجح (ما إذا كان لا يزال يعمل يناقش في النهاية). وتغطي كل جانب من جوانب التداول، بما في ذلك ما للتجارة، وكم لشراء أو بيع ومتى للخروج من مواقع الفوز أو الخاسرة.

على مدى السنوات الأربع المقبلة، حققت السلاحف معدل نمو سنوي مركب قدره 80٪. وبهذا المعدل يتحول 000 500 دولار إلى أكثر من 5 ملايين دولار على مدى 4 سنوات.

وإليك كيف فعلوا ذلك.

ما السلاحف المتداولة.

والسلاحف المتداولة في الأسواق الكبيرة والسائلة. وكان عليهم، نظرا لحجم المواقف التي كانوا يدخلون فيها. وكانوا يتداولون بالأساس كل هذه الأسواق السائلة باستثناء اللحوم والحبوب.

كانت الحبوب غير محظورة لأن دينيس نفسه كان يتجاوز حسابه التجاري. ويقتصر التاجر على عدد الخيارات أو العقود الآجلة التي يمكن أن يكون لها، وهذا يعني أنه لم يكن هناك أي اليسار للسلاحف، الذين كانوا يتداولون تحت اسمه.

وفيما يلي فكرة عما فعلته السلاحف:

10 & أمب؛ 30 سنة سندات الخزانة الأمريكية و 90 يوم سندات الخزانة الأمريكية. السلع مثل البن والكاكاو والسكر والقطن والنفط الخام وزيت التدفئة والغاز الخالي من الرصاص. العملات مثل الفرنك السويسري، الجنيه البريطاني والين الياباني والدولار الكندي. المعادن الثمينة مثل الذهب والفضة والنحاس. كما قاموا بتداول العقود الآجلة للمؤشر، مثل مؤشر S & أمب؛ P 500.

ومن المثير للاهتمام أنه إذا قرر التاجر عدم تداول سلعة داخل السوق، فكانوا يتجنبون ذلك السوق تماما. لذلك إذا كان أحد السلاحف لا يريد تجارة النفط الخام، ثم كان من المفترض أن يبتعد عن كل شيء آخر في ذلك السوق، على سبيل المثال زيت التدفئة أو الغاز الخالي من الرصاص.

السلحفاة الموقف التحجيم.

يستخدم التجار السلاحف خوارزمية التحجيم موقف متطورة جدا. وسوف تعدل حجم موقفها على أساس تقلب األصل. في الأساس، إذا جمعت سلحفاة موقف في سوق تقلبات عالية، فإنه سيتم تعويضه من قبل موقف في انخفاض تقلب واحد.

ساعدت صيغة دينيسهم على معرفة مقدار كل عقد يجب أن يكون. وفي أسواق التقلبات المرتفعة، سيكون للسلاحف حتما مبالغ أصغر، وكميات أكبر من العقود في أسواق أقل تقلبا.

حتى لو كان التقلب أقل في سوق مثل اليورو دولار، كان هناك احتمال مكاسب كبيرة بسبب موقف أكبر نسبيا التي سيتم تجميعها.

تعتمد الصيغة على & # 8220؛ N & # 8221؛، وهو المتوسط المتحرك الأسي لمدة 20 يوما للنطاق الحقيقي. ويمكن أيضا استخدام قراءة أتر لمدة 20 يوما.

مرة واحدة N هو معروف، ثم حساب الدولار التقلب = N × دولار لكل نقطة.

على سبيل المثال، على عقد S & أمب؛ P 500 مصغرة الإلكترونية، نقطة واحدة من الحركة على عقد واحد يعادل خسارة 50 $ أو الربح، حتى إذا N هو 20، وتقلب الدولار هو 1000 $.

سلحفاة بنيت المواقف في & # 8220؛ وحدات & # 8221؛ حيث وحدة = 1٪ من الحساب / الدولار التقلب.

افترض أن المتداول الذي لديه حساب 200،000 دولار يتداول في مؤشر S & أمب؛ P 500، استنادا إلى الشروط المذكورة أعلاه. 1 في المائة من 000 200 دولار تساوي 2000 دولار.

أونيت = $ 2000 / $ 1000 = 2.

وهذا يعني أن عقدين يساويان وحدة واحدة لعقد S & أمب؛ P العقد، استنادا إلى N من 20. وسوف تختلف وحدات لأسواق أخرى، وسوف تتقلب قيمة الوحدة ل S & أمبير؛ P إميني أيضا كما N التغييرات متأخر , بعد فوات الوقت.

وكانت السلاحف محدودة على عدد الوحدات التي يمكن أن تتراكم (وتذكر، كم العقود في وحدة سوف تختلف بناء على السوق يجري تداولها، وعلى N)، لأنها أضافت إلى مواقع لأنها أصبحت أكثر ربحية.

وكان موقف واحد يقتصر على 4 وحدات. إذا كان عقد مواقف متعددة في الأسواق التي ترتبط ارتباطا وثيقا، يمكن للتاجر أن يكون بحد أقصى 6 يوحد في جميع المواقف مجتمعة. للحصول على موقف في العديد من الأسواق المرتبطة فضفاضة، والسلاحف يمكن أن يكون ما مجموعه 10 وحدة. كقاعدة أكثر شمولية، سمحت السلاحف بحد أقصى 12 وحدة في أي اتجاه واحد (طويلة أو قصيرة).

كيف دخلت السلاحف الصفقات.

معرفة متى للدخول في موقف مهم. والمثير للدهشة، أن السلاحف تستخدم اثنين من أنظمة الدخول بسيطة جدا.

نظام 1: نظام قصير الأجل على أساس اندلاع لمدة 20 يوما. دخلت السلاحف (وحدة واحدة) عندما تحرك السعر فوق قمة ال 20 يوما الماضية، أو انخفض إلى أدنى مستوى خلال ال 20 يوما الماضية. تم تخطي هذه الصفقة إذا كانت الإشارة السابقة هي الفائز (السعر 2N مقابل الموقف، قبل إثارة خروج مربحة لمدة 10 أيام، نوقشت في قسم الخروج).

النظام 2: نظام أطول أجلا استنادا إلى اختراق لمدة 55 يوما. دخلت السلاحف (وحدة واحدة) عندما تحرك السعر فوق أعلى من 55 يوما الماضية، أو انخفض إلى أسفل أدنى من 55 يوما الماضية. وقد تم استخدام طريقة الاختراق هذه في حالة تخطي فترة الاختراق لمدة 20 يوما للأسباب المذكورة أعلاه.

تنتهي السلاحف التجارة في الاختراق، ودائما فعل ذلك قبل الإغلاق اليومي للأسواق. الاختراق هو عندما يكون سعر الأصل "يكسر" من خلال ارتفاع أو انخفاض عدد معين من الأيام.

وقيل لهم أيضا أن تكون صارمة للغاية بشأن اتباع قواعد النظام، لأنه حتى في عداد المفقودين واحد أو اثنين من الصفقات الفائزة في السنة يمكن أن تغير تماما بشرة عوائدهم.

إضافة إلى المواضع.

استخدمت السلاحف شيئا يسمى بيراميدينغ، الذي يأخذ موقف أكبر حيث يتحرك السعر بشكل إيجابي. مرة واحدة في التجارة (سواء على أساس اندلاع 20 أو 55 يوما)، وأضاف السلاحف وحدة واحدة إلى الموقف في كل مرة انتقلت السعر 1/2 N لصالحهم. ويستند هذا على سعر الصفقة، وليس سعر الاختراق الفعلي (حيث يمكن أن يكون هناك فرق).

بافتراض أن المتداول دخل العقد الصغير e & أمب؛ P 500 في 1500، استنادا إلى N من 20 (على سبيل المثال)، 1/2 N هو 10 نقطة. 1 وحدة تم شراؤها على 1500، يتم إضافة وحدة أخرى في 1510، وأضافت وحدة أخرى في 1520، وآخر في 1530، وما إلى ذلك كما N التغييرات من أسبوع لآخر، فإن قيمة N 1/2 تتغير أيضا.

كيف خرجت السلاحف المراكز.

في بداية كل صفقة، يتم وضع وقف الخسارة 2N دون سعر الدخول إذا كان طويلا، أو 2N فوق سعر الدخول إذا كان قصير. وقد أدى ذلك إلى خفض الخسائر إذا لم يتحرك السعر بعد دخوله.

إذا تم إضافة مواقف جديدة (في كل خطوة مواتية 1 / 2N) ثم تم نقل آخر وقف الخسارة أيضا 1 / 2N. وهذا يعني عادة أن وقف الخسارة سيكون دائما 2N بعيدا عن أحدث إدخال (على الرغم من أنه يمكن أن تختلف قليلا على أساس الانزلاق).

كانت هناك طريقة وقف الخسارة الأخرى التي يطلق عليها ويبساو. مع هذه التقنية، وضعت وقف الخسارة في 1 / 2N بعيدا عن نقطة الدخول.

إذا كان السعر لا يؤثر على وقف الخسارة، عندئذ يتم استخدام أساليب النظام 1 ونظام 2 الخروج.

استخدمت السلاحف نظام N القائم على الخروج من مواقعهم.

بالنسبة للنظام 1، كان المخرج منخفضا لمدة 10 أيام للمراكز الطويلة، وارتفاع 10 أيام للمراكز القصيرة.

وبالنسبة للنظام 2، تم تمديد الفترة الزمنية إلى 20 يوما لكل من المراكز الطويلة والقصيرة.

فإنه يأخذ الكثير من الانضباط إلى الانتظار لمدة 10 أو 20 يوم انخفاض قبل الخروج من الموقف. هناك رغبة قوية للخروج في وقت سابق ولكن النظام التجاري السلاحف هو يصر على أن عقد على يمكن أن تجعل الفرق بين صنع الملايين وفقدان المال. تجنب الرغبة في الخروج (ولكن لا تزال التمسك نظام) هو ما يؤدي إلى مكاسب ضخمة.

هل استراتيجية تجارة السلاحف لا تزال ذات صلة اليوم؟

نظام تجارة السلاحف الذي وضعه ريتشارد دينيس عملت بشكل جيد جدا للتجار في ال 80. والسؤال هو ما إذا كان سيعمل اليوم أم لا.

تبين، فإنه ربما لن.

وتداولت تجارة بلوكس نظام ترتل التجاري، ووجدت أن العائدات كانت مسطحة تماما بين عامي 1996 و 2009.

ما لا يصدق هو أنهم وجدوا أن النظام ولدت عائدات من 216٪ بين 1970 و 1986- الفترة الدقيقة عندما كان ريتشارد دينيس استخدامه. وانخفض ذلك إلى 10.5 في المائة في الفترة 1986-2009.

لذلك فمن الممكن تماما أن نظام تجارة السلاحف كان مثاليا للعصر الذي كان دينيس استخدامه، أو أن السلاحف كانت محظوظة فقط، أو ربما على حد سواء. ولا يعمل النظام في العصر الحديث (على الأقل ليس في شكله الأصلي)، وهو ما يمكن أن يعني فقط أن الأسواق تغيرت وأن النظام يحتاج إلى تحديث ليعكس الواقع الجديد.

من ناحية أخرى، اختبار الرسوم الدراسية اختبار الاتجاه دونشيان النظام التالي وجدت أنها حققت أداء جيدا على مدى فترة 12 عاما تمتد 2004-2018. وأفاد الاختبار عوائد 20-30٪ مع سحب الحد الأقصى من 17-40٪ اعتمادا على يتم تداول المؤشر. إن رؤية قواعد ريتشارد دينيس كانت مستوحاة من تعاليم ريتشارد دونشيان (التي تعتبر أب التوجهات التالية)، وهذا يعطي المصداقية لفكرة أنه في حين أن نظام السلاحف التجارية قد يكون خارج النمط، لا يزال هناك مجال للاتجاه التالي في عام 2017.

أيضا، فإنه يكشف أن القرص الصغيرة في النظام يمكن أن يكون لها تأثير عميق. ومن المرجح جدا أن استراتيجية تجارة السلاحف لا تزال لها أهمية، فإنه يجب فقط تعديلها لاستيعاب اليوم & # 8217؛ s في كثير من الأحيان حركات السوق أكثر تقلبا. الاتجاهات لا تزال تحدث، وهناك الكثير من الأساليب والدورات التي تستفيد منها.

وقد تم تطوير عدد من المؤشرات على أساس طريقة السلاحف التاجر. وتبعا لكيفية إعداد تلك المؤشرات، فإنها لا تزال تنتج فرص تجارية مربحة، وخاصة خلال فترات تتجه. بطبيعة الحال، عندما يكون السوق هو & # 8217؛ ر تتجه التي هي عندما يحدث المزيد من الصفقات خاسرة. لذلك، إذا كان استخدام نظام من هذا القبيل، فمن المستحسن أن التجار لديهم نوعا من التصفية على صفقاتهم لمساعدتهم على البقاء بعيدا عن ظروف متقلبة & # 8230؛ والتي يمكن أن تستمر لفترات طويلة من الزمن. يظهر الرسم البياني أدناه مؤشر السلحفاة متاح للتنزيل مجانا في مكان سوق ميتاتريدر.

تمكنت مجموعة من التجار الجدد من تحقيق أرباح هائلة بعد اتباع نظام قائم على القواعد التالية. وذهب البعض إلى نجاح أكبر. وتابع جيري باركر أن شركة تشيسابيك كابيتال مانجمنت، التي تفوقت على شركة S & أمب؛ P 500 منذ عام 1988، حققت عائدات سنوية بلغت 11.61٪ (اعتبارا من مارس 2017).

عملت الاستراتيجية بشكل جيد جدا في عهد دينيس & # 8217؛ ق، ولكن سوف تتطلب بعض التغيير والتبديل حتى تكون فعالة الآن. ومع ذلك، فإن الاتجاهات لا تزال تحدث مما يعني أن هناك الكثير من الفرص للمتداول الاتجاه.

يبدو التجار كبيرة يمكن أن يتم بعد كل شيء.

كتبه: جيفا كالان: باحث وكاتب عمله واردة على ديليفينانس، وول ستريت الناجي والخيار المالي.

تنويه: هذه ليست المشورة في مجال الاستثمار، أو توصية لشراء أو بيع أي أوراق مالية معينة. كما أنه ليس بالضرورة تأييدا لاستراتيجية سلحفاة التاجر. قد لا تعكس النتائج التاريخية والمحاكاة بالضرورة الأداء المستقبلي.

2 أفكار حول & لدكو؛ أعلى تاجر ريتشارد دينيس واستراتيجية تجارة السلاحف & رديقو؛

سلحفاة؟ أنا دون & # 8217؛ ر تحتاج سلحفاة إلى التجارة اليوم ومزدوجة أو ثلاثية أو في وقت ما أربعة أضعاف بلدي التوازن كل شهر! وأنا لست حتى تاجر المهنية اليوم!

اثبت ذلك. ما هي إستراتيجيتك.

أضف تعليقاتك أو أسئلتك جيدا: إلغاء الرد.

الحصول على تنبيهات المشاركة.

الاقسام.

المشاركات الاخيرة.

أهم المشاركات & أمب؛ الصفحات.

تويتر تغذية.

الحصول على أفكار التجارة! برو دروس التداول! حر، أكتيونابل بريد إلكتروني واحد في عطلة نهاية الأسبوع.

أعلى تاجر ريتشارد دينيس واستراتيجية تجارة السلاحف.

ماذا لو انتزع شخص ما كنت خارج الشارع وجعل لكم مليونيرا؟

هذا ما فعله ريتشارد دينيس لعدد قليل من الرجال والنساء المحظوظين، من خلال تعليمهم لتجارة الأسواق.

السلاحف.

لتسوية الرهان، وضعت دينيس تجربة.

نظام السلاحف التجارية.

وإليك كيف فعلوا ذلك.

ما السلاحف المتداولة.

وفيما يلي فكرة عما فعلته السلاحف:

ومن المثير للاهتمام أنه إذا قرر التاجر عدم تداول سلعة داخل السوق، فكانوا يتجنبون ذلك السوق تماما. So if one of the turtles didn’t want to trade crude oil, then they were supposed to stay away from everything else in that market, for example heating oil or unleaded gas.

Turtle Position Sizing.

The Turtle Traders used a very sophisticated position sizing algorithm. They would adjust the size of their position based on volatility of the asset. Essentially, if a turtle amassed a position in a high volatility market, it would be offset by a position in a lower volatility one.

The formula Dennis provided them helped them figure out how much of each contract they should have. In high volatility markets the turtles would inevitably have smaller amounts, and larger amounts of contracts in lower volatility markets.

Even if the volatility was lower in a market like Eurodollars, there was potential for big gains due to the relatively larger position that would be accumulated.

The formula is based on “N”, which is the 20-day exponential moving average of True Range. A 20-day ATR reading could also be used.

Once N is known, then calculate Dollar Volatility = N x Dollars per Point.

For example, on an S&P 500 e-mini contract, one point of movement on one contract equates to a $50 loss or profit, so if N is 20, the Dollar Volatility is $1000.

Turtles built positions in “units” where a Unit = 1% of Account / Dollar Volatility.

Assume a trader with a $200,000 account is trading the S&P 500 emini, based on the above conditions. 1% of $200,000 is equal to $2000.

Unit = $2000 / $1000 = 2.

This means that 2 contracts is equal to one unit, for the emini S&P contract, based on an N of 20. The units for other markets will vary, and the unit value for the S&P emini will also fluctuate as N changes over time.

Turtles were limited on how many units they could accumulate (and remember, how many contracts are in a Unit will vary based on the market being traded, and on N), as they added to positions as they became more profitable.

A single position was limited to 4 units. If holding multiple positions in markets that were closely correlated, the trader could have a maximum of 6 unites in all the combined positions. For holding position in multiple loosely correlated markets, the Turtles could have a total of 10 units. As a more overarching rule, Turtles were allowed a maximum of 12 units in any one direction (long or short).

How Turtles Entered Trades.

Knowing when to enter a position is important. Surprisingly, the turtles used two very simple entry systems.

System 1: Short-term system based on 20-day breakout. The Turtles entered (one unit) when the price moved above the high of the last 20 days, or dropped below the low of the last 20 days. The trade was skipped if the prior signal was a winner (the price went 2N against the position, before triggering a 10-day profitable exit, discussed in the Exit section).

System 2: Longer-term system based on 55-day breakout. The Turtles entered (one unit) when the price moved above the high of the last 55 days, or dropped below the low of the last 55 days. This breakout method was used in case the 20-day breakout was skipped for the reasons mentioned above.

The turtles end a trade on the breakout, and always did so before the daily close of the markets. A breakout is when the price of an asset “breaks” through the high or low of a certain number of days.

They were also told to be extremely strict about following the system rules, because even missing one or two winning trades in a year could totally change the complexion of their returns.

Adding to Positions.

The Turtles used something called pyramiding, which is taking a larger position as the price moves favorably. Once in a trade (whether based on the 20 or 55-day breakout), Turtles added one unit to the position each time the price moved 1/2 N in their favor. This is based on the transaction price, and not the actual breakout price (since there could be a difference).

Assume a trader entered the the S&P 500 e-mini contract at 1500, based on an N of 20 (for example), 1/2 N is 10 points. 1 unit was purchased as 1500, another unit is added at 1510, another unit added at 1520, another at 1530, etc. As N changes from week to week, the 1/2 N value will also change.

How Turtles Exited Positions.

At the outset of each trade, a stop loss is placed 2N below the entry price if long, or 2N above the entry price if short. This served to cut losses if the price doesn’t move favorably after entry.

If new positions were added (at each 1/2N favorable move) then the last stop loss was also moved by 1/2N. This typically means that the stop loss will always be 2N away from the most recent entry (although it could vary slightly based on slippage).

There was another stop loss method called the Whipsaw. With this technique, the stop loss was placed at 1/2N away from the entry point.

If the price doesn’t hit the stop loss, then the system 1 and system 2 exit methods are used.

The Turtles used an N-based system to exit their positions.

For system 1 , the exit was a 10 day low for long positions, and a 10 day high for short positions.

For system 2 , the time period was extended to 20 days for both long and short positions.

It takes a lot of discipline to wait for a 10 or 20 day low before exiting a position. There’s a strong urge to exit earlier but the Turtle Trading system is adamant that holding on can make the difference between making millions and losing money. Avoiding the urge to get out (but still sticking to a system) is what results in the huge gains.

Is the Turtle Trading Strategy Still Relevant Today?

The Turtle Trading system devised by Richard Dennis worked very well for traders in the 80’s. The question is whether or not it would work today.

Turns out, it probably would not.

Trading Blox backtested the Turtle Trading System and found that returns were completely flat between 1996 and 2009.

What is incredible is that they found that the system generated returns of 216% between 1970 and 1986- the exact period when Richard Dennis was using it. That dropped to 10.5% from 1986-2009.

So it’s entirely possible that the Turtle Trading system was perfect for the era that Dennis was using it, or that the turtles were just lucky, or perhaps both. The system doesn’t work in the modern era (at least not in its original form), which could just mean that the markets changed and the system needs to be updated to reflect the new reality.

On the other hand, Trading Tuition tested a Donchian trend following system and found that it performed quite well over a 12 year period spanning 2004 to 2018. The test reported returns of 20-30% with max drawdowns of 17-40% depending on the index being traded. Seeing as Richard Dennis’ rules were themselves inspired by Richard Donchian’s (considered the father of trend-following) teachings, this lends credibility to the idea that, while the Turtle Trading system may be out of style, there’s still room for a trend-following system in 2017.

Also, it reveals that small tweaks in the system can have a profound impact. It is highly likely that the Turtle Trading strategy still has relevance, it just must be adjusted to accommodate today’s often choppier market movements. Trends still occur, and there are lots of methods and courses that take advantage of them.

A number of indicators have been developed based on the Turtle Trader method. And depending how those those indicators are setup, they can still produce profitable trading opportunities, especially during trending periods. Of course, when the market isn’t trending that is when more losing trades happen. Therefore, if using a system like this, it is recommended that traders have some sort of filter on their trades to help them stay out of choppy conditions…which can last for long periods of time. The chart below shows a Turtle Indicator available for free download in the MetaTrader Market Place.

A group of new traders managed to make huge profits following a rules-based trend following system. Some went on to even greater success. Original Turtle Trader Jerry Parker went on to found Chesapeake Capital Management, which has outperformed the S&P 500 since 1988 with an annualized compound return of 11.61% (as of March 2017).

The strategy worked very well in Dennis’s era, but would require some tweaking for it to be effective now. That said, trends still happen which means there are lots of opportunities for the trend trader.

It seems great traders can be made after all.

Written by: Jiva Kalan: A researcher and writer whose work is featured on DailyFinance, the Wall Street Survivor and Financial Choice.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular securities. Nor it is necessarily an endorsement of the Turtle Trader strategy. Historical and simulated results may not necessarily reflect future performance.

2 أفكار حول & لدكو؛ Top Trader Richard Dennis and the Turtle Trading Strategy ”

Turtle? I don’t need a turtle to day trade and double or triple or sometime quadruple my balance every month! And I am not even a professional day trader!

Prove it. ما هي إستراتيجيتك.

أضف تعليقاتك أو أسئلتك جيدا: إلغاء الرد.

الحصول على تنبيهات المشاركة.

الاقسام.

المشاركات الاخيرة.

أهم المشاركات & أمب؛ الصفحات.

تويتر تغذية.

الحصول على أفكار التجارة! برو دروس التداول! حر، أكتيونابل بريد إلكتروني واحد في عطلة نهاية الأسبوع.

Richard Dennis: The Trader & Teacher Behind the TurtleTraders.

Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt William Eckhardt.

Nineteen eighty-six was a huge year for Richard Dennis. He made $80 million (about $147 million in 2007 dollars). That kind of money-making put him squarely at the center of Wall Street alongside George Soros, who was making $100 million, and then junk bond king Michael Milken of Drexel Burnham Lambert, who was pulling in $80 million.

Profits like those for Dennis came with heartburn. He was down $10 million in a single day that year before bouncing back, a roller-coaster ride that would have made mere mortals lose serious sleep. Yet Dennis cockily said that he slept like a baby during all that volatility.

His moneymaking style was about mammoth home runs and many smaller strikeouts. If there was a “secret,” he knew that you had to be able to accept losses both psychologically and physiologically. Still, 1986 was a long time ago, and memories dull when an old pro starts talking about the benefits of taking “losses.” During his heyday in the 1970s, 1980s, and mid-1990s, Dennis was described in a number of ways by those who knew of him. There was Dennis the legendary floor trader, Dennis the trading system’s trading guru, Dennis who started funds with investment bank Drexel Burnham, Dennis the philanthropist, Dennis the political activist, and Dennis the industry-leading money manager. He was a difficult man to stereotype, and he liked it that way.

“Dennis the gambler” was the only label that offended him, because he never considered himself a gambler in the Las Vegas sense. He understood financial Darwinism (read: “odds”) through and through. He always played the “game” knowing that everyone else was out to beat him. Financial futures pioneer Richard Sandor put Dennis in perspective: “The name of the game is survival when the markets are this chaotic. From that perspective, he may go down as one of the most successful speculators in the 20th century.”

Dennis’s success started long before he launched the Turtle experiment. He grew up in Chicago during the 1950s, a street kid from the old South Side neighborhoods. There was no privileged childhood with wealthy parents and well-placed friends. He did not have a silver spoon or the right connections.

The teenage Dennis was introverted and wore thick glasses and polyester pants. His first stab at trading, while attending the all-boys’ St. Laurence Prep School in Chicago, was to buy ten shares of a $3 “phonograph” stock. The company folded. While his first attempt at trading failed, he was a natural at poker, intuitively understanding the odds.

His teachers did not forget him. James Sherman, who taught theology and European history to Dennis, said that he never would take anything at face value. Dennis and his friends enjoyed the mental gymnastics of taking sides in an argument. Sherman added, “If some - body had said back then that Richard Dennis would become a very wealthy man as a commodity trader, I probably wouldn’t have believed them.” His former teacher would have predicted Dennis to be in front of the fire, with a sweater and a pipe, expounding on the cosmos.

At seventeen, Dennis landed a summer job as a runner ($1.60 an hour) at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Each day the exchange floor was mobbed by hundreds of traders fighting and screaming to place their trades. They were exactly like auctioneers buying and selling their wares except that they were in a trading pit battling it out. An indoor game of tackle football would be a good description of the scene. Dennis longed to be there, but to trade on the floor you had to be twenty-one. He found a way over that hurdle by talking his father into trading for him. A blue-collar worker for Chicago’s city government, the father became a proxy guided by his son’s hand signals from the sidelines. Despite some trading success in his teens, Dennis headed off to college at DePaul University, where his passion for philosophy (after flunking out of an accounting class) from high school days was re - kindled. He was most taken with British philosophers David Hume and John Locke, who had a relatively simple way of viewing the world. “Prove it to me” was their basic perspective.

Hume thought the mind a blank slate (tabula rasa) on which experience could be written. He believed that since human beings live and function in the world, they should try to observe how they do so. Dis - covering the causes of human belief was his key principle.6 Locke, on the other hand, argued that there were no innate ideas. He asked the question, “How is the mind furnished?” He wanted to know where reason and knowledge came from. His answer was one word: “experience.”

Both Hume and Locke belonged to the school of thought known as Empiricism. Empiricism is rooted in the notion that knowledge is derived from experiment, observation, and experience. Little nuggets of simple common sense from these two eighteenth-century British philosophers connected with an impressionable college student. They became his idols. Dennis was not shy about his leanings, asserting, “I’m an empiricist, through and through. David Hume and Bertrand Russell. I’m solidly in the English tradition.” Dennis saw Hume as ruthlessly skeptical. Hume took on the sacred cows of his generation, and Dennis loved that attitude.

It wasn’t only British philosophy that turned Dennis into a skeptic. Growing up in the late 1960s and early 1970s gave him an anti - establishment view of the world. He witnessed protesters being beaten by the Chicago police during the 1968 riots, right next to the venerable Chicago Board of Trade. It was a turning point in his life:

Trading has taught me not to take the conventional wisdom for granted. What money I made in trading is testimony to the fact that the majority is wrong a lot of the time. The vast majority is wrong even more of the time. I’ve learned that markets, which are often just mad crowds, are often irrational; when emotionally overwrought, they’re almost always wrong.

After graduating from DePaul University he received a fellowship to Tulane University graduate school, but promptly dropped out and returned to Chicago within days to start trading full time. Dennis bought a seat on the MidAmerican Commodity Exchange with money borrowed from his parents (part of it from a life insurance policy in his name). He still needed cash to trade, however. His initial war chest of $100 came from his brother Tom’s earnings delivering pizzas.

This was not a family of market operators. Dennis was always honest about his father’s “hatred” of the market, explaining, “My grandfather had lost all his money in the stock market in the Depression. The urge to speculate kind of skipped a generation.” He knew his father’s perspective would never work for him:

You can’t have a standard attitude about money and do well in this business. What do I mean by that? Well, my father, for in - stance, worked for the city of Chicago for 30 years, and he once had a job shoveling coal. So, just imagine coming from his frame of reference, and thinking about losing $50 in a few seconds trading commodities. To him, that means another eight hours shoveling coal. That’s a standard attitude about money.

It didn’t take long for his father to recognize Dennis’s unique abilities to make money. By the beginning of 1973, at twenty-four, Dennis had made $100,000. Around that time he cockily preached to the Chicago papers, “I just wanted to be able to get up and say, ‘I once made $100,000 a year, and I still think you are an ass.’ That rhetoric may not be wholesome motivation, but I do think it’s part of what drives me.” He was making so much money fast that whatever the context or content of an interview, it was outdated in weeks or even days.

A rebel at heart, Dennis cultivated being a character from the outset. He was fond of saying that he never liked the idea of sharing a birthday with Richard Nixon—a gentle stab at all those conservative traders surrounding him in the pits on LaSalle Street. He was an anti-establishment guy making a fortune leveraging the establishment, while wearing jeans.

Society was splintered during the time Dennis earned his first big money. Nineteen seventy-four was a difficult year in which to focus. What with G. Gordon Liddy having been found guilty of Watergate charges and the Symbionese Liberation Army kidnapping Patricia Hearst, it was a wild time of constant turmoil. To top it off, Richard Nixon became the first President of the United States to resign from office. Current events did not stop Dennis from leveraging a 1974 run-up in the price of soybeans to a $500,000 profit. By the end of the year, at age twenty-five, he was a millionaire. Even though he downplayed his success, he couldn’t hide it. When he showed up late one day to the soybean pit explaining that his beat-up 1967 Chevy had broken down, other traders gave him flack, knowing full well he could afford a new car hundreds of times over.

Not only was his persona different, his trading was different. Dennis read Psychology Today (no government economic or crop reports for him) to keep his emotions in check and to remind him of how over - rated intuition was in trading. He took delight in boasting, in contrast to most traders who got up early to read all they could from weather reports to daily Department of Agriculture assessments, that he stayed in bed until the last minute before getting to the exchange just as trading started. At one point during this time, Dennis was in the middle of an interview with a reporter as he went to the bank to make a deposit. He was depositing a $325,000 check (in 1976, that represented two to three weeks of work for him). Depositing an amount like that in the mid-1970s was not normal. Dennis always got hassled when he tried to deposit checks that size. He was oblivious to the fact that that the teller was looking at a check that likely would exceed her total career earnings. Yet Dennis, probably younger than she was, couldn’t sign his name straight.

As his notoriety continued to grow, national newspapers like the Chicago Tribune, the New York Times, and Barron’s trumpeted his youth and success. This was not standard operating procedure in a tight-lipped world where the big Chicago traders typically kept silent.

Dennis enjoyed and even reveled in his upbringing and the unique perspective it afforded him:

I grew up in an Irish-Catholic family on the South Side of Chicago. My institutional values were very strong, if somewhat con - fused. My holy trinity consisted of the Catholic Church, the Democratic Party, and the Chicago White Sox. I would describe my early value system as nourishing, if limited. When my father took me to Hurley’s Tavern, I saw people falling off their bar stools—about what you’d expect from people who called whiskey “Irish pop.”

The Church, baseball, Democratic politics, and Irish drinking weren’t only an influence on his youth:

How much of my holy trinity informs me as an adult? In the White Sox I have a deep and abiding faith. In the Democratic Party I have shallow and fading faith, which is almost never re - warded. In the church, well…I fear 16 years of Catholic education left me a skeptic.

Look at that 1976 New York Times photo of the then twenty-six - year-old multimillionaire, lounging on the couch with his dad seated to his left, seemingly oblivious to the photographer, and it is easy to see anti-establishment staring into the camera. The photo caption only reinforced Dennis’s differences: “He drives an old, inexpensive car, he dresses in cheap knits; his money tends to pile up, unused.” However, all this press at such a young age left Dennis confronted by something he probably wasn’t expecting: people with their hands out, asking for money. “Most of them were very sad,” he recalled. “One person said, ‘Help me to learn how to trade. I’m in debt.’ Some people made it sound as if $5,000 or $10,000 were all they needed to make them happy. Those were the only letters worth answering—to explain that money won’t really make a difference.”

Not many twenty-six-year-olds would have been mature enough to handle the press using such folksy wisdom. Yet Dennis never let the swirl around him interfere with what he was doing to make money. Quite simply, his trading technique was to trade seasonal spreads. In other words, he wanted to take advantage of seasonal patterns in markets like soybeans—his initial specialty. Dennis would hold “long” (bets to profit as the market increased) and “short” (bets to profit as the market decreased) positions in futures contracts simultaneously in the same or related futures markets.

The MidAm Exchange Experience.

Once he had his MidAm seat (formerly called the Chicago Open Board), Dennis was off and running. Initially he had no clue what he was doing, but he was a fast learner who learned to think like a casino operator: When I started out, I had a system called “having no idea whatsoever.” For four years, I was just taking edges. If someone was giving me a quarter cent edge to buy an Oat contract, I didn’t think he knew anything either. I just knew that I was getting a quarter cent edge, and at the end of the day, the edges would approximately equal my profit. Obviously, on an individual basis that doesn’t have to happen, but over a longer period of time, it will. I tried to be like the house in the casino. It wasn’t that novel. People at the Board of Trade had been doing it forever. But for the MidAm, it was kind of revolutionary because no one would understand that you could balance your risk with a lot of volume. That’s how I started. Dennis went from zero to sixty on the MidAm in record time, and no one knew how he learned to do what he was doing. He knew that traders had a tendency to self-destruct. The battle with self was where he focused his energies: “I think it’s far more important to know what Freud thinks about death wishes than what Milton Friedman thinks about deficit spending.” Go down to Wall Street today after work with the hot-shot traders all earning $500,000 a year at the big banks and you’ll find very few who talk about Freud being the ticket to making millions.

However, trading was harder than Dennis let on. The early ups and downs took a toll on him, but he learned the hard lessons within months. “You have to have mentally gone through the process of failure,” he said. “I had a day during which I made every mistake known to modern man. I took too big risks. I panicked and sold at the bottom of every break. I had built my net worth up to about $4,000 coming into that day and I lost about $1,000 in two hours. It took me about three days to work through that experience emotionally, and I think it was the best thing that ever happened to me.”20 It was about this time, in 1972–73, that fellow traders Tom Willis and Robert Moss met Dennis. They would go on to work together for years as close friends and business associates, with Dennis as their leader. The star did not wear a polished Armani suit, nor did his bud - dies. They sported used-car-salesman jackets, with muttonchops and bad hair, but their appearance disguised calculated gamers looking to beat the pants off their peers every day of the week. Willis, like Dennis, was brought up in a working-class family. His father, who worked first as a milkman and then delivering bread, helped him buy a seat on the MidAm for $1,000 at age twenty-one. Willis had never heard of the exchange until he saw an article in the Chicago Tribune with the headline “Altruistic Grain Trader Successful.” It was about 22.5-year-old Richard Dennis.

Willis immediately identified with his peer’s anti-establishment way of viewing the world. Dennis was not afraid to say that he had voted for Eugene McCarthy and didn’t think that just because he had radical ideas he should be driving a cab. Years later, Dennis was even more direct, saying that “the market was a legal and moral way to make a living. Being a trader doesn’t oblige one to be a conservative.”

Yet Dennis’s political stance was not what first caught Willis’s attention; it was his attitude about making money in a world where class and distinction were always barriers to entry. Without a second thought, Willis hopped in his Jeep and drove to the Fisher Building in the Chicago Loop to check out the exchange. When he arrived at the MidAm for the first time, his soon-to-be role model dominated the landscape: “Rich was in the pit. I knew him by the photo from the Tribune.” Willis started trading with his MidAm seat, but had no immediate contact with Dennis even though they were the two youngest traders in the pit. Nearly everybody else was sixty-five to eighty years old, and they actually had chairs and spittoons in the trading pit. A young Dennis, towering above a sea of old guys lounging on chairs, must have been a sight. Situated only a few blocks from the Chicago Board of Trade, the MidAm was a bit player at the time. It was small, perhaps fifteen hundred square feet. While Willis didn’t know how his start at the MidAm would unfold (he ended up building a thirty-plus-year trading career), he was certain Dennis saw a much bigger future.

Even then, big wigs from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) were coming over in their limos to pick young Dennis’s mind. Ultimately, Dennis approached Willis most likely because he was good enough not to go broke and because they were both about the same age. Dennis told Willis, “If you’re buying wheat and it’s strong and the beans are too low and the wheat is five higher, why don’t you sell soy - beans instead of selling the wheat you bought?” It was a very sophisticated insight. In fact, buying “strength” and selling “weakness” short still befuddles investors. It is counter-intuitive to buying low and selling high.

Dennis was already sharing his knowledge with other traders. He was a natural-born teacher. Dennis was teaching the young exchange members at either his or Willis’s apartment. Willis would buy two hundred pieces of chicken and a barrel of potato salad. There were fifty or sixty guys in his one-bedroom apartment with Dennis holding court, explaining how to trade. There was a practical need for this. The MidAm was selling new memberships to all kinds of traders, many with no experience. Dennis and Willis were teaching “liquidity.” To give the market confidence in the viability of the MidAm exchange, there had to be a critical mass of buyers and sellers. This culture of education was creating a better ex - change with better traders. And those better traders were starting to make money. It could all be traced to Dennis.

Craig and Gary Lacrosse, Ira Shyman, John Grace, Wayne Elliott, Robert Tallian, and David Ware are all Chicago traders who learned from Dennis. While they may not be household names, they became hugely successful in part because of the generosity of the young Dennis, who felt no compunction about sharing his skills with others. After the apartment-training sessions everyone would go home, and they would meet the next day in the pits. During market hours they would ask Dennis, “Is this what you meant?” and he’d say, “Yeah.” Dennis freely gave away his knowledge.

The Chicago Board of Trade.

Great experiences and profits aside, it wasn’t long before Dennis needed a bigger playing field than the minor-league MidAm. He was already plotting how to beat the big boys at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the world’s largest futures exchange. Once at the CBOT, his placid demeanor contrasted sharply with the hoarse shouts and wild gestures of other floor traders, many of whom were millionaire traders with decades of experience. He was soon beating them at their own game with a “betting” style that was often so relaxed that his trading cards would literally slip out of his hand onto the floor.

Dennis’s move to the CBOT was historic. Willis could hardly believe it: “Richard goes to the Board of Trade and knocks the cover off the ball. They’ve never seen anything like this. I mean this kid takes the whole pit off. Not because he can or not because he wants to show off, but corn is up, beans are up two and the corn is down three and they sell him a million bushels of soybeans up one and a half and the next thing you know they close up seven and they’re talking about him, ‘Who’s this new kid?’ ” Willis refrained from divulging the names of old-timers that Dennis was beating the pants off when he first hit the CBOT, since many of those losing traders are still around today.

One of Dennis’s students said that their teacher believed his physical attributes to be behind his pit-trading success: “You ever heard why he considered himself really successful? He is six feet something and the size of a freight train. He could see over people and more importantly, people could see him. People always knew that he was there. He honestly felt that’s why he was successful.”

Dennis’s attributing his height and weight as the reason he was successful is not the full story. There was more to becoming a millionaire by twenty-five than being “six foot something” and three hundred pounds plus. Even with excess weight, his peers described him as having cat-quick reflexes on the trading floor.

The Move from the Pit.

Trading on the floor, down in the pit, might have been exciting during this era, but today the Chicago Board of Trade floor is silent. That doesn’t mean trading is dead today—far from it. Electronic trading out - dated the old ways faster than anyone ever thought could happen. However invigorating the trading floor may have been in the 1970s, the only way for Dennis to expand his trading success was to move away from it. The Chicago trading floors were designed with multiple pits and each pit traded a different market. To trade more than one market, he had to physically move back and forth across the floor to the various pits.

Dennis’s solution allowed him to remain faithful to buying in strength and selling in weakness. He knew that if his system worked in soybeans and corn, then it would also work in gold and stocks and all other markets. At the same time, he saw Wall Street changing, with new markets appearing fast and furiously as economies around the world opened and expanded. Fixed income futures were launched, and by 1975 the Inter - national Monetary Market (IMM) was allowing anyone to trade currencies the way they did stocks. Dennis knew what this would all mean. To trade in that bigger world, Dennis moved into an office on the twenty-third floor of the CBOT, leaving the turmoil of screaming traders behind. Concurrent with his move, in November 1975, Dennis and Larry Carroll formed a partnership. Known simply by the first initial of their last names, C&D Commodities was born.

There is little public information on Larry Carroll (they did meet on the MidAm floor). And, although Dennis’s “D” came second, theirs was not a partnership where the decisions and profits were split fifty - fifty. Dennis was always the man. Within short order, C&D Commodities became one of the largest independent trading firms in the world. They quickly rivaled such established institutional investors as Salomon Brothers and the Pillsbury Company.

However, other traders who had seen him dominate the pits were shocked when Dennis left the floor. They thought he was crazy. To compete against the likes of Pillsbury and Salomon Brothers was considered suicide, because no one thought he could maintain that floor “edge.” Dennis himself had always said the pit was the safest place to be. The transition did almost sink Dennis. When he went off floor, he struggled. In the late 1970s, the markets were getting to him. Tom Willis saw the struggle and recalled, “He was a little disillusioned, a little off balance frankly.” Both men went out to a bar to discuss the situation. Dennis was not throwing in the towel. He looked at Willis and said, “Tom, I got stuff that’s so good that used off floor in the right hands it would make $50 million a year.”

In today’s terms, this would be like someone saying he has a way of trading that’s so good he can make $200 million a year. Or think of some number that is fifty times more than is rationally achievable by any normal measure. With anyone else, Willis would have been skeptical: “If I didn’t know Rich. I would have said, ‘Gee, he really does sound a little more off balance than I’m even thinking.’ Saying $50 million in 1979 is a crazy thing to do, but I believed it. And he did it. If an edge is good or the idea is good, let’s get in front of the screen and trade them all. If it’s that good, let’s get in front of the screen and have 20 people do this. As a matter of fact, it’s very, very consistent to expanding geometrically the ability to take advantage of this good idea.”

The goal of trading every market he could and making more money in the process was reached within a year, just as Dennis had predicted. Yet making that much more money didn’t change him one bit. His new office was not marble and glass. The outside hallway to the office had dingy brown paneling. On his office door was “C&D Commodities, Richard J. Dennis and Company.” No flash. The men’s room for the floor was next door.

Martin Hare, a nephew of Larry Carroll’s, was sixteen and in high school when he was working for Dennis. Now an executive with Merrill Lynch in San Diego, he worked in Dennis’s unconventional office environment from 1982 to 1989. Hare still gets enthusiastic when he thinks about his after-school job: “I cut out the Wall Street settlement prices for three summers. My weekly salary at C&D was $120. That was up from $90 the summer before. The C&D office was royal blue in color. There was a sleeping room for those that needed to nap, mostly for Rich, and a refrigerator full of the best beer.”

Dennis may have physically disappeared from the trading floor, but the hermit-like trading wizard hovered over the markets like Zeus. Everyone knew he was there when a huge order came into the pits. Traders also knew not to get in front of his orders, or they could be potentially wiped out. Critics and regulators at times thought he was too big and moved markets unfairly. Dennis scoffed, “Sour grapes.”

The criticisms were an excuse for people who had learned to lose. Dennis had no patience for people targeting his success. “I cringe a little when I’m identified as a millionaire,” Dennis said after reading that his $250,000 contribution to Adlai Stevenson was the largest individual political gift ever in Illinois. “If somebody just had $100,000, he wouldn’t be called a thousandaire, and if a pauper gave a dollar, they wouldn’t say, ‘Pauper gives his last buck.’ ” Although he grew wealthier by the day, he still kept an antinuclear poster hanging in his office and remained outside the chummy atmosphere of the exchanges. He was not prone to travel in the limelight. “We don’t have much contact with him,” remarked one Board of Trade player.

While his peers collected vintage cars and mansions, Dennis kept wearing those out-of-date polyester pants hiked over an ever-expanding waist. He exercised by eating cheap hamburgers at noisy grills. Dennis in a short-sleeved shirt, no tie, religiously pouring over arcane base - ball statistics from the Baseball Abstract, was a common sight. In fact, he would eventually buy a piece of the White Sox baseball team. Once he was an owner, his 1980s attempt to get White Sox management to see the benefits of Bill James–style “Moneyball” fell on deaf ears. One of his students, Michael Shannon, watched his friends try to dress him up by moving him from his South Side studio apartment, and recalled, “Bill Eckhardt and others actually forced him to move into something that was a little bit more parallel to his station.”

Money for Dennis was just a way to keep score in the game. He was frank about it: “Trading is a little bit like hitting a ball. If you’re thinking what your batting average should be, you’re not concentrating on the right thing when you bat the ball. Dollars are the batting average of the trader.” This original thinker and big-time baseball fan left a visual image on everyone. Several confidantes talked about Dennis’s socks. One of his students smiled, “You need to make sure he’s wearing a matched pair of the same color.”

Bradley Rotter, a former West Point graduate and often called Dennis’s first investor, witnessed his eccentricity: “I was at his house for a Fourth of July tennis party and Richard Dennis couldn’t be found…at the end of the party he came out of his house wearing a white tennis shirt, white tennis shorts, and black shoes and black socks. I’ll never forget that picture.” Rotter was not mocking Dennis. He respected Dennis’s testicular fortitude to trade trends no matter what. In baseball, testicular fortitude means everyone can talk about the game, but if you’re going to get into the game, you must swing the bat. Dennis swung and swung hard. No singles. His was Babe Ruth, home-run, swing-for-the-fences-style moneymaking.

However, the Babe Ruth of trading was near oblivious to the basics of everyday life. Mail and personal bills were handled by C&D’s back office because of his inattention. His office would even send over toilet paper to his apartment. The weight room in his Gold Coast condo was virtually unused. “I pat the weights once in a while.” said Dennis. He enjoyed using a third of his time to do absolutely nothing. Another Dennis student, Erle Keefer, went beyond his eccentricities: “Rich is probably the greatest trigger puller that I personally have ever known: he has the ability under tremendous pressure to stand there with his own money and pull the trigger when other people wilted. And when he was wrong, he could turn on a dime. That’s amazing—that’s not trading, that’s genetic.” The genetic line was debatable; after all, that was the point of his Turtle experiment.

Dennis’s success eventually caused more serious problems. In the mid - 1980s, critics accused him of strong-arming the market. They blamed him for too much market volatility. Words like “collusion” were thrown around. Dennis was not buying it. He said, “One man’s volatility is another man’s profit.” When Dennis was a guest on a radio show in 1984, a caller assured him that if he traded long enough, he would give it all back. You could feel the anger. Some people simply did not want to hear about a young guy making millions. Even though everyone knew exchanges needed speculators, too many people didn’t want those same risk-takers to make a profit. Dennis himself appeared before Congress as they investigated the “efficiency of the markets”—unable to define what that phrase meant. His detractors were silenced after government regulators testified that the total buying and selling by Dennis did not breach exchange limits.

Soon, Dennis would join the political fight at a whole new level. He became one of the largest Democratic donors in the country, often focusing his generosity on standard politicians and assorted underdogs. From donating millions to battered women’s shelters to the decriminalization of marijuana, causes without wide publicity appealed to him (he would give away 10 percent of his earnings every year). While calling himself a liberal libertarian, he once donated $1,000 to former Black Panther Bobby Rush.

Dennis did more than just write checks. He became good friends with Bill Bradley and supported Walter Mondale (1984) and Bruce Babbitt (1988) for President. He lobbied hard against conservative stalwart Robert Bork. There was a rational justification in Dennis’s mind for his political ideals: “If it’s something everyone hates but you think is right, those are the important things to do because no one else is going to do them.”

However, becoming a successful politician on the basis of supporting the have-nots of society was not as easy as trading to make millions. It wasn’t enough merely to fund his causes; Dennis also wanted to “work” them, and immediately ran into roadblocks. Politics was not a zero-sum game, and he got frustrated. “Politicians, at worse, are mindless replicas of what their constituents think. People…don’t want to hear painful truths.”

When invited to participate in the diplomatic dances that made up Washington politics, he stepped on toes, and seldom refrained from voicing his opinions. Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker was once introduced to Dennis. He told Dennis that he didn’t “like those casinos you have out there in Chicago.” Dennis was well aware that he was being indulged because he was rich and would be listened to only if he had something significant to say. Soon after he founded his new 1982 think tank, the Roosevelt Center for American Policy Studies in Washington, D. C., it began to flounder.

Washington was a tough market no matter how many millions you had. And now Democrats were frustrating him, too. He said, “My principal irritation with liberals in general: they don’t understand how it can possibly be true that you make the poor richer by making every - one richer. I don’t understand that they don’t even consider that possibility.” The problem in a political world was that Dennis couldn’t work the floors of Congress the way he had the Chicago trading floors. It was one thing to own one of the six original copies of the U. S. Constitution (which he did) and an entirely different thing to try to influence modern political leaders. He was impatient.

Ultimately, over time he would become a board member of the libertarian Cato Institute, serving with such notable peers as John C. Malone, chairman, Liberty Media Corporation, and Frederick W. Smith, chairman and CEO, FedEx Corporation. He also joined the board of the Reason Foundation, another libertarian think tank. Dennis’s political forays were never easy. One political critic of his thought Dennis was a bully because he didn’t adjust his thinking to accommodate others. Dennis saw that criticism as coming from a typical Washington careerist being afraid to rock the boat.

His stance on the decriminalization of narcotics best illustrated what made him tick. He knew the “drug czar” of the day, Bill Bennett, would never defeat drug violence with his “just say no” approach. Dennis thought people should be allowed to do what they wanted to do, even if they injured themselves, as long as they did not hurt others. He commented:

The drug war violates the Golden Rule of doing unto others as you would have them do unto you. None of us is free of vice or temptation. Does any one of us really want to be jailed for our moral shortcomings? If our teenaged child is arrested for drug possession—a distinct possibility, since 54 percent of teenagers admit trying illicit drugs—do we really want him or her sent to prison for falling victim to the curiosity of youth?

Here was a man making millions in the pits by winning as much money from others as possible, but at the same he was clearly worried about others’ well being. He was a mass of contradictions.

Rough Seas.

Dennis had some severe down periods before that banner year of 1986. Perhaps his political ambitions had caused a loss of focus. Adding to his responsibility, by this time he had moved beyond trading only his own money. He was trading for others, and managing their money was not his strongest suit. He said, “It’s drastically more work to lose other people’s money. It’s tough. I go home and worry about it.”

This was not what his clients wanted to hear. In 1983, when his as - sets under management peaked at over $25 million, his accounts for clients hit turbulence. After a 53 percent rise in January, accounts dropped 33 percent in February and March. That drop was enough to prompt George Soros to yank the $2 million he had invested with Dennis only two months earlier. After a partial rebound in April and May, Dennis’s funds dived another 50 percent in value. His 1983-era computer that cost $150,000 did little to console nervous clients. It took many of his investors more than two years to get back to even with their investment. Most didn’t stick around, and Dennis closed down some accounts in 1984. He rebated all management fees to losing accounts and conceded that trading client money as aggressively as his own money was not something clients could psychologically handle.36 What did that aggression look like on a month - by-month basis?

Dennis was famous for those big returns, and that was what his clients wanted—to become rich like Rich. They got on board knowing full well the voyage would get rocky, but conveniently forgot that fact when rough sailing made them seasick. At the first sign of troubled waters, when they were puking losses, they cut short the voyage and blamed Dennis. He was learning the hard way about people’s irrational expectations.

In 2005, Dennis looked back on his troubled times in the fund management arena:

I think the problem is that a money manager very rarely ever sits down with the person whose money it is. There’s always a representative of a firm of a firm of a firm. When you have customer money, you generally try to please the people who want “pass - able,” whereas you might be able to explain it to the ultimate end user whose money it is that “this might look brutal, but we’re trying for something spectacular.”

However, at that time in 1983, Dennis needed a way out of the customer rat race. He wanted to divert even more attention to big-picture strategies, from philosophizing to an even greater focus on decriminalization of pot to anything but being beholden to impatient and uninformed clients.

In many ways his Turtle teaching experiment was his second act, and he knew it. He said, “You shouldn’t, I suppose, live in your trading children’s reflective glory, but I am. I think [training the Turtles] is the single best thing I’ve done in commodities.” Yet there was no way he could have known at the time that the single best thing he would do would change his life and the history of speculative trading in ways never imagined. Glory and legend aside, in 1983, with a clear plate, Dennis’s most immediate task was to select his Turtle students from the thousands who responded to his want ad.

Final thought from Dennis:

“I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.”

That is classic Richard Dennis.

Richard Dennis Backgrounders.

المشاركات الاخيرة.

تريند فولوينغ مانترا: فوندامنتالس أر ريليجيون يناير 7، 2018 سبيكولاري ديسمبر 6، 2017 تهب فقاعات يترك فرصة كبيرة في السوق نوفمبر 17، 2017 عرض لي الاتجاه بعد المال نوفمبر 16، 2017 وول ستريت المصطلحات مصممة لإرباك لك 5 نوفمبر 2017.

أرشيف المشاركة اليومية.

أرشيف المتداولين.

الكتب الكلاسيكية & أمب؛ فيلم.

الاتجاه التالي بودكاست.

تريند فولوينغ ™ تحتل المرتبة العالية مثل # 2 على اي تيونز الاستثمار مع 6M + يستمع. الاستماع مجانا في كل مكان: اي تيونز، إهيرتراديو، جوجل، خياطة، رسس.

دروس معالج السوق.

# 1 رجل بلدة صغيرة يبدأ في محطة وقود 1970s ويصبح أسطورة التداول بقيمة 100 مليون $. إرسال البريد الإلكتروني والحصول على الفيديو مجانا.

# 2 الملياردير ديفيد هاردينغ بدأت صغيرة، وأصبح أتباع الاتجاه والآن هو أسطورة التداول. قراءة قصته هنا.

اشترك واستلم فيديو معالج السوق.

معلومات عن الاتجاه التالي والتجارة؛ شبكة المواقع قد لا يتم نسخها أو إعادة طباعتها أو إعادة توزيعها دون الحصول على إذن خطي من مايكل كوفيل و تريند فولوينغ (ولكن يتم الحصول على إذن كتابي بسهولة ومنح عادة). والغرض من هذا الموقع هو تشجيع التبادل الحر للأفكار عبر الاستثمارات والمخاطر والاقتصاد وعلم النفس والسلوك البشري وريادة الأعمال والابتكار. وتستند محتويات هذا الموقع على آراء مايكل كوفيل، ما لم يذكر خلاف ذلك. وتستند المواد الفردية إلى آراء المؤلف المعني، الذي قد يحتفظ بحق المؤلف كما هو مذكور. وتهدف المعلومات على هذا الموقع كما تقاسم المعارف والمعلومات من البحوث والخبرة من مايكل كوفيل ومجتمعه. لم يتم تصميم المعلومات الواردة في هذه الوثيقة لاستخدامها كدعوة للاستثمار مع أي مستشار لمحة. جميع البيانات على هذا الموقع مباشرة من كفتك، سيك، ياهو المالية، وجوجل وثائق الإفصاح من قبل المديرين المذكورين هنا. نحن نفترض أن جميع البيانات لتكون دقيقة، ولكن لا تتحمل أي مسؤولية عن الأخطاء أو السهو أو الأخطاء الكتابية التي أدلى بها المصادر. الاتجاه التالي والتجارة؛ الأسواق وتبيع مختلف البحوث الاستثمارية والمنتجات الإعلامية الاستثمارية. القراء هم وحدهم المسؤولون عن اختيار الأسهم والعملات والخيارات والسلع والعقود الآجلة، والاستراتيجيات، ومراقبة حسابات الوساطة الخاصة بهم. الاتجاه التالي والتجارة؛ والشركات التابعة لها والموظفين والوكلاء لا تطلب أو تنفذ الصفقات أو تقديم المشورة الاستثمارية، وغير مسجلة كوسطاء أو مستشارين مع أي وكالة اتحادية أو حكومية.

الاتجاه التالي والتجارة ؛، تورتلترادر & ريج ؛، تورتلترادر & ريج؛ هي علامات تجارية / علامات الخدمة من تريند التالية. العلامات التجارية وعلامات الخدمة الأخرى التي تظهر على شبكة تريند التالية من المواقع قد تكون مملوكة من قبل تريند التالية أو من قبل أطراف أخرى بما في ذلك أطراف ثالثة لا ينتمي إلى تريند التالية والتجارة؛.

الاتجاه الوحيد بعد والتجارة؛ فيلم وثائقي: مشاهدة.

تريند فولوينغ ™، TurtleTrader®، TurtleTrader® هي علامات تجارية / علامات خدمة تريند فولوينغ. العلامات التجارية وعلامات الخدمة الأخرى التي تظهر على شبكة تريند التالية من المواقع قد تكون مملوكة من قبل تريند التالية أو من قبل أطراف أخرى بما في ذلك أطراف ثالثة لا ينتمي إلى تريند التالي.

تحقق من بلدي 2017 ملحمة الإصدار: الاتجاه التالي: كيفية جعل ثروة في الثور، الدب والأسود بجعة الأسواق. منقحة وممددة مع ضعف المحتوى. الطبعة الخامسة من 24 أبريل 2017.

PRESENTING: The Secret Trading Strategy From The 1930s That Hedge Funders Don't Want You To Know About.

" The large operator does not, as a rule, go into a campaign unless he sees in prospect a movement of from 10 to 50 points. Livermore once told me he never touched anything unless there were at least 10 points in it according to his calculations."

So writes Richard Wyckoff, the legendary trader who in the 1930s wrote a manifesto that gained him a cult following on Wall Street.

His 1931 book, "The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks вЂ“ A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique," is out of print and somewhat difficult to find these days (not impossible), but even in 2018, hedge fund managers still swear by it.

One of the key takeaways from the book is that if you want to succeed, you have to learn to recognize the professionals and understand what they are doing. That's what those who follow Wyckoff do вЂ” they watch the large operators.

Wyckoff walks us through the process of how a large operator will manipulate a stock up or down вЂ” so that next time one sees it unfolding on the screen before his or her own eyes, he or she can react accordingly.

تقويم الفوركس هدية

Thursday 15 March 2018

ريتشارد استراتيجية التداول

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